India Q4 GDP numbers today: Will the actual data match the predictions?

India's GDP growth rate accelerated to 8.4% in Q3FY24; FY24 growth estimate at 7.6%
 

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024 (Q4FY24) will be released on Friday. Several key financial institutions have provided their growth predictions ahead of the announcement, highlighting a positive outlook for India's economic growth.

The Indian economy grew by 8.4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q4 FY23, marking the strongest quarterly growth since Q2 FY22. This growth rate exceeded an upwardly revised 8.1 per cent in Q3, beating forecasts of 6.6 per cent, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
 

Reserve Bank of India's GDP predictions

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected that the Indian economy will grow at 7 per cent in the current financial year, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy globally. This growth is supported by the sustained strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals.
In its monetary policy meeting in April, the RBI forecasted 7 per cent growth in real GDP for Q4FY24.

In its latest annual report, the RBI noted that while it expects headline inflation to moderate further, food inflation remains vulnerable to supply-side shocks. The Indian economy expanded robustly in FY24, with real GDP growth accelerating to 7.6 per cent from 7.0 per cent in the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of 7 per cent or above growth.
 

Economist Intelligence Unit's GDP predictions

The Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) Global Outlook report forecasts India to be the fastest-growing major economy from 2024 to 2028, predicting its growth will outpace China's. As India's economic influence expands, the report projects that by the mid-2040s, BRICS nations will surpass the G7 in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP).

The EIU has revised its forecast for India's real GDP growth for 2024 to 2.5 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent previously. "Growth will be unchanged rather than slowing from 2023. Growth is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of high interest rates and geopolitical risks," the EIU Global Outlook report stated.