India's steel demand is projected to reach the 190 million tonne mark in 2030, with production expected to hit 210 million tonnes.

India's steel demand is anticipated to experience a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7%, reaching the 190 million tonne (MT) level by 2030, according to a report by SteelMint India. The primary drivers of this demand are expected to be the construction and infrastructure sectors, contributing 60-65% to the overall demand. The report, titled 'India’s Steel and Coking Coal Demand 2030', suggests that in the best-case scenario, the demand could even reach 230 MT by 2030.

Other contributing factors include the auto and engineering sectors, as well as population growth, increasing urbanization, and various government initiatives. The report projects that by the end of 2023, steel demand will touch the 120 MT mark, with production reaching 136 MT.

Looking ahead, India's crude steel production is expected to reach 210 MT by 2030, representing a 45% increase from the production levels of 2023. The positive outlook reflects the country's robust growth prospects and the pivotal role of the steel industry in driving economic development.

According to the report, several countries, including China, are expected to witness a decline in steel production compared to their current levels. Regarding the demand for raw materials, SteelMint indicated that India's steel production growth through the Blast Oxygen Furnace (BOF) route, targeting 140 million tonnes of hot metal output by 2030, will necessitate 116 million tonnes of metallurgical coal. The report suggests that India is poised to become the largest importer of sea-borne metallurgical coal, holding a market share of 30%. By 2030, the country is projected to require approximately 350 million tonnes of iron ore to support its steel production needs.

The year 2030 holds significance for the Indian steel industry, as the government has set an ambitious target to increase the country's installed steel-making capacity to 300 million tonnes. Out of the approximately 80 million tonnes of additional steel production capacity to be added in India by 2030, 66% is expected to come from the Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) route. Currently, in India, the Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) contribute 46% and 54%, respectively, to the overall steel production.